Falls, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

879
FXUS61 KBGM 091110
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
710 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased chances of precipitation tonight, as showers along the
front overnight look like they could be more widespread.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several fronts move through today, with steady rain this
morning, then another batch of showers and isolated
thunderstorms this evening and overnight.

2) Another pocket of cold air aloft moves in early next week
with well below average temperatures and potential for
widespread frost and isolated freezes possible.

3) Active pattern to end this week, as the overall weather
pattern begins to trend warmer into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak warm front is lifting into the region early this morning
with steady light rain moving through NEPA and eventually into
NY by sunrise. This front is in no rush, so rain will linger
through much of NEPA into the NY Thruway corridor into the early
to mid afternoon. The Tug Hill may escape most of the rain as
the front stalls and then moves east, never really lifting all
the way north. Despite rain for most of the day, precipitable
water values are only around three quarters of an inch so rates
will be only around a tenth of an inch per hour, perhaps up to a
quarter inch an hour in heavier showers. Total rainfall
expected could be up to a half inch in portions of the Twin
Tiers into the Catskills but most of the region will see less
than a quarter inch.

Tonight, a cold front moves in from the west, with some showers
and isolated thunderstorms accompanying it. With the front not
arriving until after dark, the lower atmosphere will be stable
so no severe weather is expected despite some higher 0-6 km
shear of around 50 to 60 knots.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a brief warm up this weekend, another pocket of sub
freezing 850 mb temperatures advects into the region. Overnight
trends in the 850 temps were a little warmer, and a surface high
does not build in as fast. Still, min 850 mb temperatures fall
to between -2C and -4C. Monday night has the highest risk of
frost, and with the growing season starting for the rest of NY
and PA, frost headlines will likely be needed. Overnight lows
have >80% chance of falling below 35 through the Twin Tiers,
though the Lake Ontario plain and the Wyoming valley have odds
closer to 30%. Since the surface high has slowed down, north
winds may persist for more of the night, which will help with
mixing and prevent any hard freezes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

By mid week, the long wave trough axis is finally east of the
region. NW flow will continue aloft, though warmer air is
starting to work into the Northeast from the west.An area of low
pressure moves through Thursday into Friday bringing some
chances of light rain once again. As with the story of recent
rain, this low is cut off from any meaningful moisture sources
so not expecting any significant rainfall amounts. After Friday,
ensembles show 850 mb temperatures finally climbing back to
climatological averages and potentially above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moistening up has occurred along a weak warm front overnight
with on-and-off showers for KAVP-KITH and restrictions
especially KBGM-KELM. KSYR-KRME will eventually slip into MVFR
ceilings for a time midday into afternoon followed by a return
to VFR. Then this evening, another approaching front will cause
new scattered showers for at least KSYR-KRME and perhaps KITH-
KBGM-KELM. Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out but confidence
is much too low to include in TAFs at this time. Variable to
light southeast wind, will veer south as the warm front lifts
by this afternoon and then southwest tonight, yet still fairly
light generally under 10 knots.

Outlook:

Sunday through Sunday Night...Unsettled with scattered showers
and intermittent minor restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Showers likely with
associated restrictions as low pressure pivots into the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...MDP